Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 24.596340 27.967557 31.596631 35.789465 40.495804 45.611083 51.587619
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 19.522372 24.082990 29.366134 35.921549 43.819528 53.009550 64.494300
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 16.688441 21.695919 27.775726 35.669537 45.613461 57.687302 73.418363
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 14.759056 20.095925 26.848559 35.969898 47.913049 62.956387 83.269854
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 13.610562 19.282921 26.717906 37.105093 51.158205 69.414817 94.817381
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 12.141082 17.854190 25.593990 36.751685 52.312136 73.111570 102.860366
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.433015 15.902532 23.550800 34.911990 51.219835 73.614654 106.488186
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.789869 15.399714 23.464897 35.762795 53.863094 79.306822 117.502082
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.247408 14.983727 23.448179 36.674211 56.600091 85.223742 129.092466
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.482288 14.151985 22.735386 36.472988 57.647423 88.714226 137.296495
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.735274 13.277603 21.879210 35.968672 58.167746 91.404794 144.392480
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.214392 12.718472 21.461888 36.097026 59.632310 95.539229 153.814066
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.813191 12.335231 21.312745 36.665934 61.860427 101.018537 165.695313
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.380875 11.862314 20.980904 36.910033 63.576000 105.783751 176.707756
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.894375 11.249046 20.361381 36.616292 64.366008 109.081014 185.492967
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.561154 10.878140 20.121268 36.935635 66.169960 114.066939 197.204947
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 5.392888 10.792236 20.364883 38.095281 69.443538 121.591253 213.407795
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 5.002490 10.257608 19.771727 37.734346 70.062565 124.712261 222.392751
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 4.428596 9.322396 18.384335 35.848416 67.882799 122.973297 223.032266
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 4.282250 9.210232 18.505095 36.720564 70.653670 129.827279 238.704893
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 4.152439 9.119671 18.657508 37.654627 73.576062 137.062746 255.342418
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.890811 8.738078 18.224658 37.448412 74.378872 140.582560 265.561308
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 3.613843 8.300967 17.651812 36.931537 74.561947 142.984766 273.862941